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Kuřim vs Ždírec nad Doubravou — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Kuřim
Kuřim
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ždírec nad Doubravou
Ždírec nad Doubravou
9/29/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 9Městský stadion Kuřim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kuřim65%
×Draw20%
Ždírec nad Doubravou15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuřim
2.12
Ždírec nad Doubravou
0.90

Kuřim creates 136% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 80 away

creates per match

Kuřim
2.50
Ždírec nad Doubravou
0.96

allows per match

Kuřim
0.83
Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.73

finishing

Kuřim+0.00on par
Ždírec nad Doubravou+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuřim ↓

Ždírec nad Doubravou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kuřim or draw
85%
Kuřim or Ždírec nad Doubravou
80%
Draw or Ždírec nad Doubravou
35%

Winning margin

Kuřim wins by 2+
41%
Ždírec nad Doubravou wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kuřim 1+ goals
88%
Kuřim 2+ goals
62%
Kuřim 3+ goals
35%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 1+ goals
59%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 2+ goals
23%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kuřim (draw refunded)
81%
Ždírec nad Doubravou (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuřim at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

Ždírec nad Doubravou away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.73 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuřim attack 2.50 + Ždírec nad Doubravou defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.12

Ždírec nad Doubravou attack 0.96 + Kuřim defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kuřim scores more
65%
level
20%
Ždírec nad Doubravou scores more
15%

Kuřim at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kuřim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Kuřim 1–2 Ždírec nad Doubravou

Ždírec nad Doubravou beat Kuřim 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Městský stadion Kuřim in Kuřim.