Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ždírec nad Doubravou vs Břeclav — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Ždírec nad Doubravou
Ždírec nad Doubravou
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Břeclav
Břeclav
5/11/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 25Stadion SK Tatran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Ždírec nad Doubravou56%
×Draw23%
Břeclav21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.87
Břeclav
1.05

Ždírec nad Doubravou creates 78% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 66 away

creates per match

Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.59
Břeclav
1.03

allows per match

Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.07
Břeclav
2.14

finishing

Ždírec nad Doubravou+0.00on par
Břeclav+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ždírec nad Doubravou ↓

Břeclav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ždírec nad Doubravou or draw
79%
Ždírec nad Doubravou or Břeclav
77%
Draw or Břeclav
44%

Winning margin

Ždírec nad Doubravou wins by 2+
33%
Břeclav wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ždírec nad Doubravou 1+ goals
85%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 2+ goals
56%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 3+ goals
29%
Břeclav 1+ goals
65%
Břeclav 2+ goals
28%
Břeclav 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ždírec nad Doubravou (draw refunded)
73%
Břeclav (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ždírec nad Doubravou at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.07 · 83 matches

Břeclav away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.14 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ždírec nad Doubravou attack 1.59 + Břeclav defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.87

Břeclav attack 1.03 + Ždírec nad Doubravou defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ždírec nad Doubravou scores more
56%
level
23%
Břeclav scores more
21%

Ždírec nad Doubravou at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ždírec nad Doubravou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Ždírec nad Doubravou 0–0 Břeclav

Ždírec nad Doubravou and Břeclav drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion SK Tatran in Ždírec nad Doubravou.