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Břeclav vs Ždírec nad Doubravou — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Břeclav
Břeclav
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ždírec nad Doubravou
Ždírec nad Doubravou
11/17/20234. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 10Stadion Lesní ulice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Břeclav47%
×Draw25%
Ždírec nad Doubravou28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Břeclav
1.58
Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.16

Břeclav creates 36% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 81 away

creates per match

Břeclav
1.39
Ždírec nad Doubravou
0.95

allows per match

Břeclav
1.36
Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.77

finishing

Břeclav+0.00on par
Ždírec nad Doubravou+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Břeclav ↓

Ždírec nad Doubravou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Břeclav or draw
72%
Břeclav or Ždírec nad Doubravou
75%
Draw or Ždírec nad Doubravou
53%

Winning margin

Břeclav wins by 2+
24%
Ždírec nad Doubravou wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Břeclav 1+ goals
79%
Břeclav 2+ goals
47%
Břeclav 3+ goals
21%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 1+ goals
69%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 2+ goals
32%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Břeclav (draw refunded)
63%
Ždírec nad Doubravou (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Břeclav at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Ždírec nad Doubravou away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.77 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Břeclav attack 1.39 + Ždírec nad Doubravou defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.58

Ždírec nad Doubravou attack 0.95 + Břeclav defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Břeclav scores more
47%
level
25%
Ždírec nad Doubravou scores more
28%

Břeclav at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Břeclav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Břeclav vs Ždírec nad Doubravou

Břeclav beat Ždírec nad Doubravou 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on November 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Lesní ulice in Břeclav.