Žďár nad Sázavou 1–2 Vrchovina: Result & Stats

Žďár nad Sázavou

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Vrchovina

3/10/2024

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 16UMT Bouchalky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Žďár nad Sázavou36%

×Draw24%

Vrchovina41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Žďár nad SázavouExpected goals in this matchVrchovina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.63

Žďár nad Sázavou

1.52

Vrchovina

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 30 away

1.93

creates per match

1.87

1.38

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Žďár nad Sázavou

1.93

Vrchovina

1.87

allows per match

Žďár nad Sázavou

1.38

Vrchovina

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Žďár nad Sázavou+0.00on par

Vrchovina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žďár nad Sázavou ↓

Vrchovina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Žďár nad Sázavou or draw

59%

Žďár nad Sázavou or Vrchovina

76%

Draw or Vrchovina

64%

Winning margin

Žďár nad Sázavou wins by 2+

17%

Vrchovina wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Žďár nad Sázavou 1+ goals

78%

Žďár nad Sázavou 2+ goals

45%

Žďár nad Sázavou 3+ goals

20%

Vrchovina 1+ goals

80%

Vrchovina 2+ goals

48%

Vrchovina 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Žďár nad Sázavou (draw refunded)

47%

Vrchovina (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žďár nad Sázavou at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.38 · 81 matches

Vrchovina away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žďár nad Sázavou attack 1.93 + Vrchovina defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.52

Vrchovina attack 1.87 + Žďár nad Sázavou defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Žďár nad Sázavou scores more

36%

level

24%

Vrchovina scores more

41%

Vrchovina at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vrchovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Žďár nad Sázavou 1–2 Vrchovina

Vrchovina beat Žďár nad Sázavou 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at UMT Bouchalky in Žďár nad Sázavou.

Žďár nad Sázavou vs Vrchovina — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

4. liga - Divizie D: Žďár nad Sázavou 1–2 Vrchovina