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Vrchovina vs Žďár nad Sázavou — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Vrchovina
Vrchovina
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Žďár nad Sázavou
Žďár nad Sázavou
6/14/20254. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 30Stadion Nové Město na Moravě

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vrchovina56%
×Draw20%
Žďár nad Sázavou23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vrchovina
2.20
Žďár nad Sázavou
1.35

Vrchovina creates 63% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 84 away

creates per match

Vrchovina
2.50
Žďár nad Sázavou
1.54

allows per match

Vrchovina
1.17
Žďár nad Sázavou
1.90

finishing

Vrchovina+0.00on par
Žďár nad Sázavou+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vrchovina ↓

Žďár nad Sázavou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vrchovina or draw
77%
Vrchovina or Žďár nad Sázavou
80%
Draw or Žďár nad Sázavou
44%

Winning margin

Vrchovina wins by 2+
35%
Žďár nad Sázavou wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vrchovina 1+ goals
89%
Vrchovina 2+ goals
64%
Vrchovina 3+ goals
37%
Žďár nad Sázavou 1+ goals
74%
Žďár nad Sázavou 2+ goals
39%
Žďár nad Sázavou 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vrchovina (draw refunded)
71%
Žďár nad Sázavou (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vrchovina at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Žďár nad Sázavou away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.90 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vrchovina attack 2.50 + Žďár nad Sázavou defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.20

Žďár nad Sázavou attack 1.54 + Vrchovina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vrchovina scores more
56%
level
20%
Žďár nad Sázavou scores more
23%

Vrchovina at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vrchovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vrchovina vs Žďár nad Sázavou

Vrchovina beat Žďár nad Sázavou 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on June 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Nové Město na Moravě in Nové Město na Moravě.