Žďár nad Sázavou 3–3 Sokol Tasovice: Result & Stats

Žďár nad Sázavou

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Sokol Tasovice

5/3/2026

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Žďár nad Sázavou48%

×Draw22%

Sokol Tasovice30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Žďár nad SázavouExpected goals in this matchSokol Tasovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.48

Žďár nad Sázavou

1.91

Sokol Tasovice

1.48

Žďár nad Sázavou creates 29% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 82 away

1.93

creates per match

1.57

1.38

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Žďár nad Sázavou

1.93

Sokol Tasovice

1.57

allows per match

Žďár nad Sázavou

1.38

Sokol Tasovice

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Žďár nad Sázavou+0.00on par

Sokol Tasovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žďár nad Sázavou ↓

Sokol Tasovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Žďár nad Sázavou or draw

70%

Žďár nad Sázavou or Sokol Tasovice

78%

Draw or Sokol Tasovice

52%

Winning margin

Žďár nad Sázavou wins by 2+

27%

Sokol Tasovice wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Žďár nad Sázavou 1+ goals

85%

Žďár nad Sázavou 2+ goals

57%

Žďár nad Sázavou 3+ goals

30%

Sokol Tasovice 1+ goals

77%

Sokol Tasovice 2+ goals

43%

Sokol Tasovice 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Žďár nad Sázavou (draw refunded)

61%

Sokol Tasovice (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žďár nad Sázavou at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.38 · 81 matches

Sokol Tasovice away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.89 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žďár nad Sázavou attack 1.93 + Sokol Tasovice defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.91

Sokol Tasovice attack 1.57 + Žďár nad Sázavou defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Žďár nad Sázavou scores more

48%

level

22%

Sokol Tasovice scores more

30%

Žďár nad Sázavou at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Žďár nad Sázavou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff