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Sokol Tasovice vs Žďár nad Sázavou — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Sokol Tasovice
Sokol Tasovice
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Žďár nad Sázavou
Žďár nad Sázavou
11/16/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 7Stadion TJ Sokol Tasovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Sokol Tasovice48%
×Draw22%
Žďár nad Sázavou30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Tasovice
1.98
Žďár nad Sázavou
1.52

Sokol Tasovice creates 30% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 84 away

creates per match

Sokol Tasovice
2.06
Žďár nad Sázavou
1.54

allows per match

Sokol Tasovice
1.49
Žďár nad Sázavou
1.90

finishing

Sokol Tasovice+0.00on par
Žďár nad Sázavou+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Tasovice ↓

Žďár nad Sázavou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Sokol Tasovice or draw
70%
Sokol Tasovice or Žďár nad Sázavou
78%
Draw or Žďár nad Sázavou
52%

Winning margin

Sokol Tasovice wins by 2+
27%
Žďár nad Sázavou wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sokol Tasovice 1+ goals
86%
Sokol Tasovice 2+ goals
59%
Sokol Tasovice 3+ goals
31%
Žďár nad Sázavou 1+ goals
78%
Žďár nad Sázavou 2+ goals
45%
Žďár nad Sázavou 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sokol Tasovice (draw refunded)
62%
Žďár nad Sázavou (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Tasovice at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches

Žďár nad Sázavou away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.90 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Tasovice attack 2.06 + Žďár nad Sázavou defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.98

Žďár nad Sázavou attack 1.54 + Sokol Tasovice defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sokol Tasovice scores more
48%
level
22%
Žďár nad Sázavou scores more
30%

Sokol Tasovice at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sokol Tasovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Sokol Tasovice 0–4 Žďár nad Sázavou

Žďár nad Sázavou beat Sokol Tasovice 4-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Sokol Tasovice in Tasovice pod Hodonice.