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Žďár nad Sázavou vs Líšeň II — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Žďár nad Sázavou
Žďár nad Sázavou
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Líšeň II
Líšeň II
5/31/20254. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 28Fotbalové Hřiště Bohdalov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Žďár nad Sázavou36%
×Draw23%
Líšeň II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žďár nad Sázavou
1.58
Líšeň II
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 45 away

creates per match

Žďár nad Sázavou
1.93
Líšeň II
2.02

allows per match

Žďár nad Sázavou
1.38
Líšeň II
1.24

finishing

Žďár nad Sázavou+0.00on par
Líšeň II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žďár nad Sázavou ↓

Líšeň II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Žďár nad Sázavou or draw
59%
Žďár nad Sázavou or Líšeň II
77%
Draw or Líšeň II
64%

Winning margin

Žďár nad Sázavou wins by 2+
17%
Líšeň II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Žďár nad Sázavou 1+ goals
79%
Žďár nad Sázavou 2+ goals
47%
Žďár nad Sázavou 3+ goals
21%
Líšeň II 1+ goals
82%
Líšeň II 2+ goals
51%
Líšeň II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Žďár nad Sázavou (draw refunded)
47%
Líšeň II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žďár nad Sázavou at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.38 · 81 matches

Líšeň II away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žďár nad Sázavou attack 1.93 + Líšeň II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.58

Líšeň II attack 2.02 + Žďár nad Sázavou defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Žďár nad Sázavou scores more
36%
level
23%
Líšeň II scores more
41%

Líšeň II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Líšeň II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Žďár nad Sázavou 0–0 Líšeň II

Žďár nad Sázavou and Líšeň II drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Fotbalové Hřiště Bohdalov in Bohdalov.