Líšeň II 1–0 Žďár nad Sázavou: Result & Stats

Líšeň II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Žďár nad Sázavou

3/17/2024

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 17SK Líšeň UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Líšeň II56%

×Draw21%

Žďár nad Sázavou23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Líšeň IIExpected goals in this matchŽďár nad Sázavou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

1.33

Líšeň II

2.14

Žďár nad Sázavou

1.33

Líšeň II creates 61% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 84 away

2.38

creates per match

1.54

1.13

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Líšeň II

2.38

Žďár nad Sázavou

1.54

allows per match

Líšeň II

1.13

Žďár nad Sázavou

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Líšeň II+0.00on par

Žďár nad Sázavou+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Líšeň II ↓

Žďár nad Sázavou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Líšeň II or draw

77%

Líšeň II or Žďár nad Sázavou

79%

Draw or Žďár nad Sázavou

44%

Winning margin

Líšeň II wins by 2+

34%

Žďár nad Sázavou wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Líšeň II 1+ goals

88%

Líšeň II 2+ goals

63%

Líšeň II 3+ goals

36%

Žďár nad Sázavou 1+ goals

74%

Žďár nad Sázavou 2+ goals

38%

Žďár nad Sázavou 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Líšeň II (draw refunded)

70%

Žďár nad Sázavou (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Líšeň II at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Žďár nad Sázavou away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.90 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Líšeň II attack 2.38 + Žďár nad Sázavou defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.14

Žďár nad Sázavou attack 1.54 + Líšeň II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Líšeň II scores more

56%

level

21%

Žďár nad Sázavou scores more

23%

Líšeň II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Líšeň II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff