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Zbuzany vs Ústí nad Orlicí — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Zbuzany
Zbuzany
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ústí nad Orlicí
Ústí nad Orlicí
6/4/20223. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 28Stadion FK Zbuzany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zbuzany56%
×Draw24%
Ústí nad Orlicí20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbuzany
1.71
Ústí nad Orlicí
0.91

Zbuzany creates 88% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 50 away

creates per match

Zbuzany
1.53
Ústí nad Orlicí
0.92

allows per match

Zbuzany
0.89
Ústí nad Orlicí
1.88

finishing

Zbuzany+0.00on par
Ústí nad Orlicí+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbuzany ↓

Ústí nad Orlicí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zbuzany or draw
80%
Zbuzany or Ústí nad Orlicí
76%
Draw or Ústí nad Orlicí
44%

Winning margin

Zbuzany wins by 2+
31%
Ústí nad Orlicí wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zbuzany 1+ goals
82%
Zbuzany 2+ goals
51%
Zbuzany 3+ goals
24%
Ústí nad Orlicí 1+ goals
60%
Ústí nad Orlicí 2+ goals
23%
Ústí nad Orlicí 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zbuzany (draw refunded)
74%
Ústí nad Orlicí (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbuzany at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Ústí nad Orlicí away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.88 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbuzany attack 1.53 + Ústí nad Orlicí defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ústí nad Orlicí attack 0.92 + Zbuzany defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Zbuzany scores more
56%
level
24%
Ústí nad Orlicí scores more
20%

Zbuzany at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Zbuzany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zbuzany vs Ústí nad Orlicí

Zbuzany beat Ústí nad Orlicí 1-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Zbuzany in Zbuzany.