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Ústí nad Orlicí vs Zbuzany — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Ústí nad Orlicí
Ústí nad Orlicí
CANC
12:00
Zbuzany
Zbuzany
4/24/20213. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 13UMT Ústí nad Orlicí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ústí nad Orlicí46%
×Draw24%
Zbuzany30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ústí nad Orlicí
1.71
Zbuzany
1.35

Ústí nad Orlicí creates 27% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ústí nad Orlicí
1.20
Zbuzany
1.26

allows per match

Ústí nad Orlicí
1.45
Zbuzany
2.21

finishing

Ústí nad Orlicí+0.00on par
Zbuzany+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ústí nad Orlicí ↓

Zbuzany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ústí nad Orlicí or draw
70%
Ústí nad Orlicí or Zbuzany
76%
Draw or Zbuzany
54%

Winning margin

Ústí nad Orlicí wins by 2+
24%
Zbuzany wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ústí nad Orlicí 1+ goals
82%
Ústí nad Orlicí 2+ goals
51%
Ústí nad Orlicí 3+ goals
24%
Zbuzany 1+ goals
74%
Zbuzany 2+ goals
39%
Zbuzany 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ústí nad Orlicí (draw refunded)
60%
Zbuzany (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ústí nad Orlicí at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Zbuzany away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ústí nad Orlicí attack 1.20 + Zbuzany defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.71

Zbuzany attack 1.26 + Ústí nad Orlicí defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ústí nad Orlicí scores more
46%
level
24%
Zbuzany scores more
30%

Ústí nad Orlicí at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ústí nad Orlicí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ústí nad Orlicí vs Zbuzany — Match Preview

Ústí nad Orlicí face Zbuzany on April 24, 2021 in this 3. liga - CFL B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ústí nad Orlicí host Zbuzany at UMT Ústí nad Orlicí.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.