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Zbuzany vs Sokol Zápy — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Zbuzany
Zbuzany
CANC
08:15
Sokol Zápy
Sokol Zápy
4/3/20213. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 18Stadion FK Zbuzany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zbuzany42%
×Draw27%
Sokol Zápy31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbuzany
1.35
Sokol Zápy
1.13

Zbuzany creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 79 away

creates per match

Zbuzany
1.53
Sokol Zápy
1.37

allows per match

Zbuzany
0.89
Sokol Zápy
1.18

finishing

Zbuzany+0.00on par
Sokol Zápy+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbuzany ↓

Sokol Zápy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zbuzany or draw
69%
Zbuzany or Sokol Zápy
73%
Draw or Sokol Zápy
58%

Winning margin

Zbuzany wins by 2+
19%
Sokol Zápy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zbuzany 1+ goals
74%
Zbuzany 2+ goals
39%
Zbuzany 3+ goals
15%
Sokol Zápy 1+ goals
68%
Sokol Zápy 2+ goals
31%
Sokol Zápy 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zbuzany (draw refunded)
57%
Sokol Zápy (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbuzany at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Sokol Zápy away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.18 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbuzany attack 1.53 + Sokol Zápy defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sokol Zápy attack 1.37 + Zbuzany defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zbuzany scores more
42%
level
27%
Sokol Zápy scores more
31%

Zbuzany at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zbuzany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Zbuzany host Sokol Zápy

April 3, 2021: Zbuzany take on Sokol Zápy in 3. liga - CFL B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Zbuzany host Sokol Zápy at Stadion FK Zbuzany.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.