Sokol Zápy 1–1 Zbuzany: Result & Stats

Sokol Zápy

FT

1 – 1

Zbuzany

8/15/2021

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 3Stadion TJ Sokol Zápy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sokol Zápy64%

×Draw19%

Zbuzany17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokol ZápyExpected goals in this matchZbuzany

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.09

Sokol Zápy

2.30

Zbuzany

1.09

Sokol Zápy creates 111% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 19 away

2.40

creates per match

1.26

0.93

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Sokol Zápy

2.40

Zbuzany

1.26

allows per match

Sokol Zápy

0.93

Zbuzany

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokol Zápy+0.00on par

Zbuzany+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Zápy ↓

Zbuzany →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Sokol Zápy or draw

83%

Sokol Zápy or Zbuzany

81%

Draw or Zbuzany

36%

Winning margin

Sokol Zápy wins by 2+

41%

Zbuzany wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sokol Zápy 1+ goals

90%

Sokol Zápy 2+ goals

67%

Sokol Zápy 3+ goals

40%

Zbuzany 1+ goals

66%

Zbuzany 2+ goals

30%

Zbuzany 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sokol Zápy (draw refunded)

79%

Zbuzany (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Zápy at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.93 · 82 matches

Zbuzany away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Zápy attack 2.40 + Zbuzany defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.30

Zbuzany attack 1.26 + Sokol Zápy defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sokol Zápy scores more

64%

level

19%

Zbuzany scores more

17%

Sokol Zápy at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sokol Zápy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff