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Zbuzany vs Slovan Velvary — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Zbuzany
Zbuzany
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Slovan Velvary
Slovan Velvary
6/1/20223. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 30Stadion FK Zbuzany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zbuzany46%
×Draw25%
Slovan Velvary30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbuzany
1.60
Slovan Velvary
1.24

Zbuzany creates 29% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 64 away

creates per match

Zbuzany
1.53
Slovan Velvary
1.58

allows per match

Zbuzany
0.89
Slovan Velvary
1.67

finishing

Zbuzany+0.00on par
Slovan Velvary+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbuzany ↓

Slovan Velvary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zbuzany or draw
70%
Zbuzany or Slovan Velvary
75%
Draw or Slovan Velvary
54%

Winning margin

Zbuzany wins by 2+
23%
Slovan Velvary wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zbuzany 1+ goals
80%
Zbuzany 2+ goals
47%
Zbuzany 3+ goals
22%
Slovan Velvary 1+ goals
71%
Slovan Velvary 2+ goals
35%
Slovan Velvary 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Zbuzany (draw refunded)
61%
Slovan Velvary (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbuzany at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Slovan Velvary away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.67 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbuzany attack 1.53 + Slovan Velvary defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.60

Slovan Velvary attack 1.58 + Zbuzany defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zbuzany scores more
46%
level
25%
Slovan Velvary scores more
30%

Zbuzany at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zbuzany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Zbuzany 1–1 Slovan Velvary

Zbuzany and Slovan Velvary drew 1-1 in 3. liga - CFL B on June 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Zbuzany in Zbuzany.