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Slovan Velvary vs Zbuzany — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Slovan Velvary
Slovan Velvary
FT
1 – 3
Zbuzany
Zbuzany
9/28/20213. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 15Stadion TJ Slovan Velvary

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Slovan Velvary55%
×Draw22%
Zbuzany24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Velvary
2.02
Zbuzany
1.27

Slovan Velvary creates 59% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 19 away

creates per match

Slovan Velvary
1.83
Zbuzany
1.26

allows per match

Slovan Velvary
1.27
Zbuzany
2.21

finishing

Slovan Velvary+0.00on par
Zbuzany+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Velvary ↓

Zbuzany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Slovan Velvary or draw
76%
Slovan Velvary or Zbuzany
78%
Draw or Zbuzany
45%

Winning margin

Slovan Velvary wins by 2+
32%
Zbuzany wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Slovan Velvary 1+ goals
87%
Slovan Velvary 2+ goals
60%
Slovan Velvary 3+ goals
33%
Zbuzany 1+ goals
72%
Zbuzany 2+ goals
36%
Zbuzany 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Slovan Velvary (draw refunded)
70%
Zbuzany (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Velvary at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.27 · 64 matches

Zbuzany away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Velvary attack 1.83 + Zbuzany defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.02

Zbuzany attack 1.26 + Slovan Velvary defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Slovan Velvary scores more
55%
level
22%
Zbuzany scores more
24%

Slovan Velvary at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Slovan Velvary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Velvary vs Zbuzany

Zbuzany beat Slovan Velvary 3-1 in 3. liga - CFL B on September 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Slovan Velvary in Velvary.