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Zbuzany vs Přeštice — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Zbuzany
Zbuzany
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Přeštice
Přeštice
10/22/20223. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 12Stadion FK Zbuzany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zbuzany51%
×Draw23%
Přeštice26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbuzany
1.86
Přeštice
1.28

Zbuzany creates 45% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Zbuzany
1.80
Přeštice
1.17

allows per match

Zbuzany
1.40
Přeštice
1.93

finishing

Zbuzany+0.00on par
Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbuzany ↓

Přeštice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Zbuzany or draw
74%
Zbuzany or Přeštice
77%
Draw or Přeštice
49%

Winning margin

Zbuzany wins by 2+
29%
Přeštice wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zbuzany 1+ goals
84%
Zbuzany 2+ goals
55%
Zbuzany 3+ goals
28%
Přeštice 1+ goals
72%
Přeštice 2+ goals
37%
Přeštice 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zbuzany (draw refunded)
66%
Přeštice (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbuzany at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Přeštice away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbuzany attack 1.80 + Přeštice defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.86

Přeštice attack 1.17 + Zbuzany defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Zbuzany scores more
51%
level
23%
Přeštice scores more
26%

Zbuzany at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zbuzany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zbuzany vs Přeštice

Zbuzany beat Přeštice 5-1 in 3. liga - CFL A on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Zbuzany in Zbuzany.