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Přeštice vs Zbuzany — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Přeštice
Přeštice
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zbuzany
Zbuzany
5/20/20233. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 27Stadion Přeštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Přeštice60%
×Draw20%
Zbuzany20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Přeštice
2.24
Zbuzany
1.22

Přeštice creates 84% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Přeštice
2.27
Zbuzany
0.93

allows per match

Přeštice
1.50
Zbuzany
2.20

finishing

Přeštice+0.00on par
Zbuzany+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Přeštice ↓

Zbuzany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Přeštice or draw
80%
Přeštice or Zbuzany
80%
Draw or Zbuzany
40%

Winning margin

Přeštice wins by 2+
38%
Zbuzany wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Přeštice 1+ goals
89%
Přeštice 2+ goals
65%
Přeštice 3+ goals
38%
Zbuzany 1+ goals
70%
Zbuzany 2+ goals
34%
Zbuzany 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Přeštice (draw refunded)
75%
Zbuzany (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Přeštice at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Zbuzany away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Přeštice attack 2.27 + Zbuzany defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.24

Zbuzany attack 0.93 + Přeštice defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Přeštice scores more
60%
level
20%
Zbuzany scores more
20%

Přeštice at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Přeštice 3–0 Zbuzany

Přeštice beat Zbuzany 3-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Přeštice in Přeštice.