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Zbuzany vs Loko Vltavín — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Zbuzany
Zbuzany
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Loko Vltavín
Loko Vltavín
4/22/20233. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 23Stadion FK Zbuzany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zbuzany46%
×Draw24%
Loko Vltavín30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbuzany
1.68
Loko Vltavín
1.31

Zbuzany creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 87 away

creates per match

Zbuzany
1.80
Loko Vltavín
1.23

allows per match

Zbuzany
1.40
Loko Vltavín
1.55

finishing

Zbuzany+0.00on par
Loko Vltavín+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbuzany ↓

Loko Vltavín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Zbuzany or draw
70%
Zbuzany or Loko Vltavín
76%
Draw or Loko Vltavín
54%

Winning margin

Zbuzany wins by 2+
24%
Loko Vltavín wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zbuzany 1+ goals
81%
Zbuzany 2+ goals
50%
Zbuzany 3+ goals
24%
Loko Vltavín 1+ goals
73%
Loko Vltavín 2+ goals
38%
Loko Vltavín 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zbuzany (draw refunded)
61%
Loko Vltavín (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbuzany at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Loko Vltavín away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.55 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbuzany attack 1.80 + Loko Vltavín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.68

Loko Vltavín attack 1.23 + Zbuzany defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zbuzany scores more
46%
level
24%
Loko Vltavín scores more
30%

Zbuzany at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zbuzany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Zbuzany 0–1 Loko Vltavín

Loko Vltavín beat Zbuzany 1-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Zbuzany in Zbuzany.