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Loko Vltavín vs Zbuzany — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Loko Vltavín
Loko Vltavín
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Zbuzany
Zbuzany
9/24/20223. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 8Stadion na Plynárně

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Loko Vltavín58%
×Draw22%
Zbuzany20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loko Vltavín
1.96
Zbuzany
1.07

Loko Vltavín creates 83% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 15 away

creates per match

Loko Vltavín
1.72
Zbuzany
0.93

allows per match

Loko Vltavín
1.22
Zbuzany
2.20

finishing

Loko Vltavín+0.00on par
Zbuzany+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loko Vltavín ↓

Zbuzany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Loko Vltavín or draw
80%
Loko Vltavín or Zbuzany
78%
Draw or Zbuzany
42%

Winning margin

Loko Vltavín wins by 2+
34%
Zbuzany wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Loko Vltavín 1+ goals
86%
Loko Vltavín 2+ goals
58%
Loko Vltavín 3+ goals
31%
Zbuzany 1+ goals
66%
Zbuzany 2+ goals
29%
Zbuzany 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Loko Vltavín (draw refunded)
74%
Zbuzany (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loko Vltavín at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.22 · 87 matches

Zbuzany away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loko Vltavín attack 1.72 + Zbuzany defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.96

Zbuzany attack 0.93 + Loko Vltavín defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Loko Vltavín scores more
58%
level
22%
Zbuzany scores more
20%

Loko Vltavín at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Loko Vltavín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Loko Vltavín vs Zbuzany

Loko Vltavín beat Zbuzany 3-1 in 3. liga - CFL A on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion na Plynárně in Praha.