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Zbuzany vs Jiskra Domažlice — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Zbuzany
Zbuzany
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jiskra Domažlice
Jiskra Domažlice
3/26/20233. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 19SK Hostivař tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zbuzany38%
×Draw24%
Jiskra Domažlice37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbuzany
1.52
Jiskra Domažlice
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 85 away

creates per match

Zbuzany
1.80
Jiskra Domažlice
1.61

allows per match

Zbuzany
1.40
Jiskra Domažlice
1.25

finishing

Zbuzany+0.00on par
Jiskra Domažlice+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbuzany ↓

Jiskra Domažlice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zbuzany or draw
63%
Zbuzany or Jiskra Domažlice
76%
Draw or Jiskra Domažlice
62%

Winning margin

Zbuzany wins by 2+
18%
Jiskra Domažlice wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Zbuzany 1+ goals
78%
Zbuzany 2+ goals
45%
Zbuzany 3+ goals
20%
Jiskra Domažlice 1+ goals
78%
Jiskra Domažlice 2+ goals
44%
Jiskra Domažlice 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Zbuzany (draw refunded)
51%
Jiskra Domažlice (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbuzany at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Jiskra Domažlice away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.25 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbuzany attack 1.80 + Jiskra Domažlice defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.52

Jiskra Domažlice attack 1.61 + Zbuzany defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zbuzany scores more
38%
level
24%
Jiskra Domažlice scores more
37%

Zbuzany at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Zbuzany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Zbuzany 3–0 Jiskra Domažlice

Zbuzany beat Jiskra Domažlice 3-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at SK Hostivař tráva in Praha.