Jiskra Domažlice 3–1 Zbuzany: Result & Stats

Jiskra Domažlice

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Zbuzany

8/27/2022

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 4Stadion Střelnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jiskra Domažlice68%

×Draw18%

Zbuzany14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jiskra DomažliceExpected goals in this matchZbuzany

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

1.05

Jiskra Domažlice

2.47

Zbuzany

1.05

Jiskra Domažlice creates 135% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 15 away

2.74

creates per match

0.93

1.17

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Jiskra Domažlice

2.74

Zbuzany

0.93

allows per match

Jiskra Domažlice

1.17

Zbuzany

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jiskra Domažlice+0.00on par

Zbuzany+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiskra Domažlice ↓

Zbuzany →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Jiskra Domažlice or draw

86%

Jiskra Domažlice or Zbuzany

82%

Draw or Zbuzany

32%

Winning margin

Jiskra Domažlice wins by 2+

46%

Zbuzany wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Jiskra Domažlice 1+ goals

91%

Jiskra Domažlice 2+ goals

70%

Jiskra Domažlice 3+ goals

44%

Zbuzany 1+ goals

65%

Zbuzany 2+ goals

28%

Zbuzany 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Jiskra Domažlice (draw refunded)

82%

Zbuzany (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiskra Domažlice at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.17 · 88 matches

Zbuzany away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiskra Domažlice attack 2.74 + Zbuzany defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.47

Zbuzany attack 0.93 + Jiskra Domažlice defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Jiskra Domažlice scores more

68%

level

18%

Zbuzany scores more

14%

Jiskra Domažlice at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Jiskra Domažlice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff