Zbuzany vs Hradec Králové II — 3. liga - CFL B 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Zbuzany51%
Hradec Králové II25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Zbuzany creates 52% more chances
Season form · 19 home / 81 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Zbuzany ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Zbuzany at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches
Hradec Králové II away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.80 · 81 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Zbuzany attack 1.53 + Hradec Králové II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.67
Hradec Králové II attack 1.32 + Zbuzany defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.10
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Zbuzany at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Zbuzany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Sokol Zápy
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
PřepeřeZbuzany
Mladá Boleslav II
Slovan Liberec II
Sokol Brozany
Slovan Velvary
Sokol Živanice
Jablonec II
Ústí nad OrlicíHradec Králové II
Pardubice II
Dukla Praha II
Teplice II
Bohemians 1905 IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Zbuzany host Hradec Králové II on Saturday, 15 May 2021 at 15:00. The match is part of the 3. liga - CFL B 2020/2021 season.
Zbuzany face Hradec Králové II (3. liga - CFL B)
3. liga - CFL B returns with Zbuzany hosting Hradec Králové II. Match starts May 15, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Zbuzany host Hradec Králové II at Stadion FK Zbuzany.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.