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Hradec Králové II vs Zbuzany — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Hradec Králové II
Hradec Králové II
FT
1 – 0
Zbuzany
Zbuzany
9/25/20213. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 9Areál TJ Slavia Hradec Králové

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hradec Králové II54%
×Draw22%
Zbuzany24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hradec Králové II
1.96
Zbuzany
1.25

Hradec Králové II creates 57% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 19 away

creates per match

Hradec Králové II
1.70
Zbuzany
1.26

allows per match

Hradec Králové II
1.25
Zbuzany
2.21

finishing

Hradec Králové II+0.00on par
Zbuzany+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hradec Králové II ↓

Zbuzany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Hradec Králové II or draw
76%
Hradec Králové II or Zbuzany
78%
Draw or Zbuzany
46%

Winning margin

Hradec Králové II wins by 2+
31%
Zbuzany wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hradec Králové II 1+ goals
86%
Hradec Králové II 2+ goals
58%
Hradec Králové II 3+ goals
31%
Zbuzany 1+ goals
71%
Zbuzany 2+ goals
36%
Zbuzany 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hradec Králové II (draw refunded)
69%
Zbuzany (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hradec Králové II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.25 · 79 matches

Zbuzany away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hradec Králové II attack 1.70 + Zbuzany defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.96

Zbuzany attack 1.26 + Hradec Králové II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hradec Králové II scores more
54%
level
22%
Zbuzany scores more
24%

Hradec Králové II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hradec Králové II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Hradec Králové II 1–0 Zbuzany

Hradec Králové II beat Zbuzany 1-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Areál TJ Slavia Hradec Králové in Hradec Králové.