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Zbuzany vs Bohemians 1905 II — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Zbuzany
Zbuzany
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bohemians 1905 II
Bohemians 1905 II
11/5/20223. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 14Stadion FK Zbuzany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zbuzany47%
×Draw23%
Bohemians 1905 II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbuzany
1.83
Bohemians 1905 II
1.44

Zbuzany creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 61 away

creates per match

Zbuzany
1.80
Bohemians 1905 II
1.48

allows per match

Zbuzany
1.40
Bohemians 1905 II
1.85

finishing

Zbuzany+0.00on par
Bohemians 1905 II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbuzany ↓

Bohemians 1905 II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Zbuzany or draw
70%
Zbuzany or Bohemians 1905 II
77%
Draw or Bohemians 1905 II
53%

Winning margin

Zbuzany wins by 2+
26%
Bohemians 1905 II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zbuzany 1+ goals
84%
Zbuzany 2+ goals
54%
Zbuzany 3+ goals
28%
Bohemians 1905 II 1+ goals
76%
Bohemians 1905 II 2+ goals
42%
Bohemians 1905 II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Zbuzany (draw refunded)
61%
Bohemians 1905 II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbuzany at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Bohemians 1905 II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.85 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbuzany attack 1.80 + Bohemians 1905 II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.83

Bohemians 1905 II attack 1.48 + Zbuzany defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Zbuzany scores more
47%
level
23%
Bohemians 1905 II scores more
30%

Zbuzany at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Zbuzany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zbuzany vs Bohemians 1905 II

Bohemians 1905 II beat Zbuzany 2-1 in 3. liga - CFL A on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Zbuzany in Zbuzany.