Bohemians 1905 II 5–1 Zbuzany: Result & Stats

Bohemians 1905 II

FT

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Zbuzany

4/3/2022

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 19Čechie Uhříněves UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bohemians 1905 II54%

×Draw22%

Zbuzany24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bohemians 1905 IIExpected goals in this matchZbuzany

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.24

Bohemians 1905 II

1.96

Zbuzany

1.24

Bohemians 1905 II creates 58% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

1.72

creates per match

1.26

1.22

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Bohemians 1905 II

1.72

Zbuzany

1.26

allows per match

Bohemians 1905 II

1.22

Zbuzany

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bohemians 1905 II+0.00on par

Zbuzany+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians 1905 II ↓

Zbuzany →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Bohemians 1905 II or draw

76%

Bohemians 1905 II or Zbuzany

78%

Draw or Zbuzany

46%

Winning margin

Bohemians 1905 II wins by 2+

31%

Zbuzany wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bohemians 1905 II 1+ goals

86%

Bohemians 1905 II 2+ goals

58%

Bohemians 1905 II 3+ goals

31%

Zbuzany 1+ goals

71%

Zbuzany 2+ goals

35%

Zbuzany 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bohemians 1905 II (draw refunded)

69%

Zbuzany (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians 1905 II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Zbuzany away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians 1905 II attack 1.72 + Zbuzany defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.96

Zbuzany attack 1.26 + Bohemians 1905 II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bohemians 1905 II scores more

54%

level

22%

Zbuzany scores more

24%

Bohemians 1905 II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bohemians 1905 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff