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Zbrojovka Brno vs Sigma Olomouc II — FNL 2019

Zbrojovka Brno
Zbrojovka Brno
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sigma Olomouc II
Sigma Olomouc II
4/26/2025FNLFNL · Round 25ADAX INVEST Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Zbrojovka Brno55%
×Draw23%
Sigma Olomouc II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbrojovka Brno
1.86
Sigma Olomouc II
1.10

Zbrojovka Brno creates 69% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 45 away

creates per match

Zbrojovka Brno
1.95
Sigma Olomouc II
1.16

allows per match

Zbrojovka Brno
1.04
Sigma Olomouc II
1.78

finishing

Zbrojovka Brno+0.00on par
Sigma Olomouc II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbrojovka Brno ↓

Sigma Olomouc II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Zbrojovka Brno or draw
78%
Zbrojovka Brno or Sigma Olomouc II
77%
Draw or Sigma Olomouc II
45%

Winning margin

Zbrojovka Brno wins by 2+
31%
Sigma Olomouc II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zbrojovka Brno 1+ goals
84%
Zbrojovka Brno 2+ goals
55%
Zbrojovka Brno 3+ goals
28%
Sigma Olomouc II 1+ goals
67%
Sigma Olomouc II 2+ goals
30%
Sigma Olomouc II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zbrojovka Brno (draw refunded)
71%
Sigma Olomouc II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbrojovka Brno at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.04 · 75 matches

Sigma Olomouc II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.78 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.95 + Sigma Olomouc II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.86

Sigma Olomouc II attack 1.16 + Zbrojovka Brno defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Zbrojovka Brno scores more
55%
level
23%
Sigma Olomouc II scores more
22%

Zbrojovka Brno at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Zbrojovka Brno 1–0 Sigma Olomouc II

Zbrojovka Brno beat Sigma Olomouc II 1-0 in FNL on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at ADAX INVEST Arena in Brno.