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Sigma Olomouc II vs Zbrojovka Brno — FNL 2019

Sigma Olomouc II
Sigma Olomouc II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Zbrojovka Brno
Zbrojovka Brno
9/29/2024FNLFNL · Round 11Andrův stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sigma Olomouc II33%
×Draw25%
Zbrojovka Brno42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sigma Olomouc II
1.33
Zbrojovka Brno
1.52

Zbrojovka Brno creates 14% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 75 away

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc II
1.53
Zbrojovka Brno
1.76

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc II
1.29
Zbrojovka Brno
1.13

finishing

Sigma Olomouc II+0.00on par
Zbrojovka Brno+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc II ↓

Zbrojovka Brno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc II or draw
58%
Sigma Olomouc II or Zbrojovka Brno
75%
Draw or Zbrojovka Brno
67%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc II wins by 2+
15%
Zbrojovka Brno wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc II 1+ goals
74%
Sigma Olomouc II 2+ goals
38%
Sigma Olomouc II 3+ goals
15%
Zbrojovka Brno 1+ goals
78%
Zbrojovka Brno 2+ goals
45%
Zbrojovka Brno 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc II (draw refunded)
44%
Zbrojovka Brno (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 45 matches

Zbrojovka Brno away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc II attack 1.53 + Zbrojovka Brno defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.33

Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.76 + Sigma Olomouc II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sigma Olomouc II scores more
33%
level
25%
Zbrojovka Brno scores more
42%

Zbrojovka Brno at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sigma Olomouc II vs Zbrojovka Brno

Sigma Olomouc II beat Zbrojovka Brno 4-1 in FNL on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Andrův stadion in Olomouc.