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Zbrojovka Brno vs Dukla Praha — FNL 2019

Zbrojovka Brno
Zbrojovka Brno
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dukla Praha
Dukla Praha
8/2/2023FNLFNL · Round 3ADAX INVEST Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Zbrojovka Brno48%
×Draw24%
Dukla Praha28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbrojovka Brno
1.68
Dukla Praha
1.23

Zbrojovka Brno creates 37% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 73 away

creates per match

Zbrojovka Brno
1.95
Dukla Praha
1.41

allows per match

Zbrojovka Brno
1.04
Dukla Praha
1.41

finishing

Zbrojovka Brno+0.00on par
Dukla Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbrojovka Brno ↓

Dukla Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zbrojovka Brno or draw
72%
Zbrojovka Brno or Dukla Praha
76%
Draw or Dukla Praha
52%

Winning margin

Zbrojovka Brno wins by 2+
25%
Dukla Praha wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zbrojovka Brno 1+ goals
81%
Zbrojovka Brno 2+ goals
50%
Zbrojovka Brno 3+ goals
24%
Dukla Praha 1+ goals
71%
Dukla Praha 2+ goals
35%
Dukla Praha 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Zbrojovka Brno (draw refunded)
63%
Dukla Praha (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbrojovka Brno at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.04 · 75 matches

Dukla Praha away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.95 + Dukla Praha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.68

Dukla Praha attack 1.41 + Zbrojovka Brno defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zbrojovka Brno scores more
48%
level
24%
Dukla Praha scores more
28%

Zbrojovka Brno at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Zbrojovka Brno 0–2 Dukla Praha

Dukla Praha beat Zbrojovka Brno 2-0 in FNL on August 2, 2023.

The match was played at ADAX INVEST Arena in Brno.