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Dukla Praha vs Zbrojovka Brno — FNL 2019

Dukla Praha
Dukla Praha
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zbrojovka Brno
Zbrojovka Brno
11/6/2021FNLFNL · Round 14Stadion Juliska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Dukla Praha40%
×Draw24%
Zbrojovka Brno36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Praha
1.53
Zbrojovka Brno
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 75 away

creates per match

Dukla Praha
1.93
Zbrojovka Brno
1.76

allows per match

Dukla Praha
1.12
Zbrojovka Brno
1.13

finishing

Dukla Praha+0.00on par
Zbrojovka Brno+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha ↓

Zbrojovka Brno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dukla Praha or draw
64%
Dukla Praha or Zbrojovka Brno
76%
Draw or Zbrojovka Brno
60%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha wins by 2+
19%
Zbrojovka Brno wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dukla Praha 1+ goals
78%
Dukla Praha 2+ goals
45%
Dukla Praha 3+ goals
20%
Zbrojovka Brno 1+ goals
76%
Zbrojovka Brno 2+ goals
42%
Zbrojovka Brno 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha (draw refunded)
53%
Zbrojovka Brno (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.12 · 73 matches

Zbrojovka Brno away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha attack 1.93 + Zbrojovka Brno defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.53

Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.76 + Dukla Praha defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dukla Praha scores more
40%
level
24%
Zbrojovka Brno scores more
36%

Dukla Praha at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dukla Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dukla Praha vs Zbrojovka Brno

Dukla Praha beat Zbrojovka Brno 1-0 in FNL on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Juliska in Praha.