Zbrojovka Brno U19 12–1 Příbram U19: Result & Stats

Zbrojovka Brno U19

FT

12 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Příbram U19

O. Pragr 87', 85', 78', 49', 39'

M. Rysavy 83'

D. Holasek 80'

F. Hluchan 66'

M. Cerny 59'

D. Pavlik 45', 15'

R. Adamec 35'

T. Musil 83'

3/12/2022

1. Liga U19 · Round 16TCM Sladovnická UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Zbrojovka Brno U1976%

×Draw13%

Příbram U1911%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zbrojovka Brno U19Expected goals in this matchPříbram U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.25

1.19

Zbrojovka Brno U19

3.25

Příbram U19

1.19

Zbrojovka Brno U19 creates 173% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 33 away

2.26

creates per match

0.85

1.52

allows per match

4.24

creates per match

Zbrojovka Brno U19

2.26

Příbram U19

0.85

allows per match

Zbrojovka Brno U19

1.52

Příbram U19

4.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zbrojovka Brno U19+0.00on par

Příbram U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbrojovka Brno U19 ↓

Příbram U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Zbrojovka Brno U19 or draw

89%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 or Příbram U19

87%

Draw or Příbram U19

24%

Winning margin

Zbrojovka Brno U19 wins by 2+

57%

Příbram U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Zbrojovka Brno U19 1+ goals

96%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 2+ goals

83%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 3+ goals

61%

Příbram U19 1+ goals

70%

Příbram U19 2+ goals

33%

Příbram U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Zbrojovka Brno U19 (draw refunded)

88%

Příbram U19 (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbrojovka Brno U19 at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.52 · 77 matches

Příbram U19 away — creates 0.85, concedes 4.24 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbrojovka Brno U19 attack 2.26 + Příbram U19 defence 4.24 → ÷2 → 3.25

Příbram U19 attack 0.85 + Zbrojovka Brno U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Zbrojovka Brno U19 scores more

76%

level

13%

Příbram U19 scores more

11%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

D. Pavlik

35'

R. Adamec

39'

O. Pragr

45'

D. Pavlik

49'

O. Pragr

59'

M. Cerny

66'

F. Hluchan

78'

O. Pragr

80'

D. Holasek

83'

M. Rysavy

83'

T. Musil

85'

O. Pragr

87'

O. Pragr

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff