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Příbram U19 vs Zbrojovka Brno U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Příbram U19
Příbram U19
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Zbrojovka Brno U19
Zbrojovka Brno U19
T. Kopr 68'
T. Pantok 47', 45'
M. Cerny 43'
8/6/20221. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 1Hřiště 2 Na Litavce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Příbram U1922%
×Draw19%
Zbrojovka Brno U1959%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Příbram U19
1.40
Zbrojovka Brno U19
2.37

Zbrojovka Brno U19 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 79 away

creates per match

Příbram U19
0.88
Zbrojovka Brno U19
1.62

allows per match

Příbram U19
3.12
Zbrojovka Brno U19
1.91

finishing

Příbram U19+0.00on par
Zbrojovka Brno U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Příbram U19 ↓

Zbrojovka Brno U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Příbram U19 or draw
41%
Příbram U19 or Zbrojovka Brno U19
81%
Draw or Zbrojovka Brno U19
78%

Winning margin

Příbram U19 wins by 2+
9%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Příbram U19 1+ goals
75%
Příbram U19 2+ goals
41%
Příbram U19 3+ goals
17%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 1+ goals
91%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 2+ goals
68%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Příbram U19 (draw refunded)
27%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Příbram U19 at home — creates 0.88, concedes 3.12 · 34 matches

Zbrojovka Brno U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.91 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Příbram U19 attack 0.88 + Zbrojovka Brno U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.40

Zbrojovka Brno U19 attack 1.62 + Příbram U19 defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Příbram U19 scores more
22%
level
19%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 scores more
59%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
M. Cerny
45'
T. Pantok
47'
T. Pantok
68'
T. Kopr

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Příbram U19 0–4 Zbrojovka Brno U19

Zbrojovka Brno U19 beat Příbram U19 4-0 in 1. Liga U19 on August 6, 2022.

Goals: M. Cerny (43'), T. Pantok (45', 47'), T. Kopr (68').

The match was played at Hřiště 2 Na Litavce in Příbram.