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Zbrojovka Brno U19 vs Jablonec U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Zbrojovka Brno U19
Zbrojovka Brno U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Jablonec U19
Jablonec U19
M. Svaty 40' (OG)
S. Becva 33'
R. Senft 24'
9/21/20241. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 7ADAX INVEST Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zbrojovka Brno U1957%
×Draw20%
Jablonec U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbrojovka Brno U19
2.26
Jablonec U19
1.36

Zbrojovka Brno U19 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 15 away

creates per match

Zbrojovka Brno U19
2.26
Jablonec U19
1.20

allows per match

Zbrojovka Brno U19
1.52
Jablonec U19
2.27

finishing

Zbrojovka Brno U19+0.00on par
Jablonec U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbrojovka Brno U19 ↓

Jablonec U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Zbrojovka Brno U19 or draw
77%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 or Jablonec U19
80%
Draw or Jablonec U19
43%

Winning margin

Zbrojovka Brno U19 wins by 2+
36%
Jablonec U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zbrojovka Brno U19 1+ goals
89%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 2+ goals
66%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 3+ goals
39%
Jablonec U19 1+ goals
74%
Jablonec U19 2+ goals
39%
Jablonec U19 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Zbrojovka Brno U19 (draw refunded)
72%
Jablonec U19 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbrojovka Brno U19 at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.52 · 77 matches

Jablonec U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbrojovka Brno U19 attack 2.26 + Jablonec U19 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.26

Jablonec U19 attack 1.20 + Zbrojovka Brno U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Zbrojovka Brno U19 scores more
57%
level
20%
Jablonec U19 scores more
23%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
R. Senft
28'
L. Toman← L. Toman
33'
S. Becva
40'
M. SvatyOwn goal
46'
V. Suchomel← V. Suchomel
51'
P. Svoboda← P. Svoboda
68'
M. Smekal← M. Smekal
77'
F. Konecny← F. Konecny
77'
L. Sirucek← L. Sirucek
81'
M. Holy← M. Holy
89'
K. Hudak
90+2'
S. Konecny
90+3'
F. Krejci

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zbrojovka Brno U19 vs Jablonec U19

Zbrojovka Brno U19 beat Jablonec U19 2-1 in 1. Liga U19 on September 21, 2024.

Goals: R. Senft (24'), S. Becva (33'), M. Svaty (40' o.g.).

The match was played at ADAX INVEST Arena in Brno.