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Jablonec U19 vs Zbrojovka Brno U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Jablonec U19
Jablonec U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Zbrojovka Brno U19
Zbrojovka Brno U19
M. Hlozanek 83'
D. Svancara 49'
4/17/20251. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 22Základní škola Mozartova UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jablonec U1925%
×Draw21%
Zbrojovka Brno U1955%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jablonec U19
1.39
Zbrojovka Brno U19
2.15

Zbrojovka Brno U19 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 79 away

creates per match

Jablonec U19
0.87
Zbrojovka Brno U19
1.62

allows per match

Jablonec U19
2.67
Zbrojovka Brno U19
1.91

finishing

Jablonec U19+0.00on par
Zbrojovka Brno U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jablonec U19 ↓

Zbrojovka Brno U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Jablonec U19 or draw
45%
Jablonec U19 or Zbrojovka Brno U19
79%
Draw or Zbrojovka Brno U19
75%

Winning margin

Jablonec U19 wins by 2+
11%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Jablonec U19 1+ goals
75%
Jablonec U19 2+ goals
40%
Jablonec U19 3+ goals
16%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 1+ goals
88%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 2+ goals
63%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Jablonec U19 (draw refunded)
31%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jablonec U19 at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

Zbrojovka Brno U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.91 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jablonec U19 attack 0.87 + Zbrojovka Brno U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.39

Zbrojovka Brno U19 attack 1.62 + Jablonec U19 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Jablonec U19 scores more
25%
level
21%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 scores more
55%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
D. Polasek
46'
K. Hudak← K. Hudak
49'
D. Svancara
54'
L. Sirucek
55'
M. Soucek
59'
S. A. Emmanuel← S. A. Emmanuel
64'
V. Haminger← V. Haminger
66'
S. Novotny← S. Novotny
74'
S. Konecny← S. Konecny
74'
O. Hublik← O. Hublik
79'
V. Pancev← V. Pancev
82'
M. Hlozanek
83'
M. Hlozanek
84'
D. Klima← D. Klima
90'
D. Svancara
90'
M. Luzny
90+1'
S. Konecny

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Jablonec U19 0–2 Zbrojovka Brno U19

Zbrojovka Brno U19 beat Jablonec U19 2-0 in 1. Liga U19 on April 17, 2025.

Goals: D. Svancara (49'), M. Hlozanek (83').

The match was played at Základní škola Mozartova UMT in Jablonec nad Nisou.