Zbrojovka Brno II 2–0 Dálnice Speřice

Zbrojovka Brno II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dálnice Speřice

3/24/2024

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 18Stadion pod Pekařkou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Zbrojovka Brno II78%

×Draw15%

Dálnice Speřice8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zbrojovka Brno IIExpected goals in this matchDálnice Speřice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

0.65

Zbrojovka Brno II

2.52

Dálnice Speřice

0.65

Zbrojovka Brno II creates 288% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 58 away

2.46

creates per match

0.62

0.67

allows per match

2.59

creates per match

Zbrojovka Brno II

2.46

Dálnice Speřice

0.62

allows per match

Zbrojovka Brno II

0.67

Dálnice Speřice

2.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zbrojovka Brno II+0.00on par

Dálnice Speřice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbrojovka Brno II ↓

Dálnice Speřice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Zbrojovka Brno II or draw

92%

Zbrojovka Brno II or Dálnice Speřice

85%

Draw or Dálnice Speřice

22%

Winning margin

Zbrojovka Brno II wins by 2+

55%

Dálnice Speřice wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Zbrojovka Brno II 1+ goals

92%

Zbrojovka Brno II 2+ goals

71%

Zbrojovka Brno II 3+ goals

45%

Dálnice Speřice 1+ goals

48%

Dálnice Speřice 2+ goals

14%

Dálnice Speřice 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Zbrojovka Brno II (draw refunded)

91%

Dálnice Speřice (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbrojovka Brno II at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.67 · 39 matches

Dálnice Speřice away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.59 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbrojovka Brno II attack 2.46 + Dálnice Speřice defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.52

Dálnice Speřice attack 0.62 + Zbrojovka Brno II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Zbrojovka Brno II scores more

78%

level

15%

Dálnice Speřice scores more

8%

Zbrojovka Brno II at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff