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Dálnice Speřice vs Zbrojovka Brno II — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Dálnice Speřice
Dálnice Speřice
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Zbrojovka Brno II
Zbrojovka Brno II
8/20/20234. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 3Hřiště TJ Speřice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Dálnice Speřice22%
×Draw21%
Zbrojovka Brno II57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dálnice Speřice
1.17
Zbrojovka Brno II
2.03

Zbrojovka Brno II creates 74% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 39 away

creates per match

Dálnice Speřice
1.41
Zbrojovka Brno II
2.49

allows per match

Dálnice Speřice
1.57
Zbrojovka Brno II
0.92

finishing

Dálnice Speřice+0.00on par
Zbrojovka Brno II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dálnice Speřice ↓

Zbrojovka Brno II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dálnice Speřice or draw
43%
Dálnice Speřice or Zbrojovka Brno II
79%
Draw or Zbrojovka Brno II
78%

Winning margin

Dálnice Speřice wins by 2+
8%
Zbrojovka Brno II wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Dálnice Speřice 1+ goals
69%
Dálnice Speřice 2+ goals
33%
Dálnice Speřice 3+ goals
11%
Zbrojovka Brno II 1+ goals
87%
Zbrojovka Brno II 2+ goals
60%
Zbrojovka Brno II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Dálnice Speřice (draw refunded)
27%
Zbrojovka Brno II (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dálnice Speřice at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.57 · 58 matches

Zbrojovka Brno II away — creates 2.49, concedes 0.92 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dálnice Speřice attack 1.41 + Zbrojovka Brno II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.17

Zbrojovka Brno II attack 2.49 + Dálnice Speřice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dálnice Speřice scores more
22%
level
21%
Zbrojovka Brno II scores more
57%

Zbrojovka Brno II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Dálnice Speřice 0–6 Zbrojovka Brno II

Zbrojovka Brno II beat Dálnice Speřice 6-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Hřiště TJ Speřice in Jiřice.