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Zbrojovka Brno II vs Bystřice nad Pernštejnem — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Zbrojovka Brno II
Zbrojovka Brno II
FT
2 – 1
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
8/30/20204. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 4Stadion pod Pekařkou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Zbrojovka Brno II72%
×Draw16%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbrojovka Brno II
2.54
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
0.93

Zbrojovka Brno II creates 173% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 37 away

creates per match

Zbrojovka Brno II
2.46
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.19

allows per match

Zbrojovka Brno II
0.67
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
2.62

finishing

Zbrojovka Brno II+0.00on par
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbrojovka Brno II ↓

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Zbrojovka Brno II or draw
88%
Zbrojovka Brno II or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
84%
Draw or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
28%

Winning margin

Zbrojovka Brno II wins by 2+
50%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Zbrojovka Brno II 1+ goals
92%
Zbrojovka Brno II 2+ goals
72%
Zbrojovka Brno II 3+ goals
46%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 1+ goals
61%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2+ goals
24%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zbrojovka Brno II (draw refunded)
86%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbrojovka Brno II at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.67 · 39 matches

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbrojovka Brno II attack 2.46 + Bystřice nad Pernštejnem defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.54

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem attack 1.19 + Zbrojovka Brno II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Zbrojovka Brno II scores more
72%
level
16%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem scores more
12%

Zbrojovka Brno II at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Zbrojovka Brno II 2–1 Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

Zbrojovka Brno II beat Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on August 30, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion pod Pekařkou in Brno.