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Bystřice nad Pernštejnem vs Zbrojovka Brno II — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
CANC
14:00
Zbrojovka Brno II
Zbrojovka Brno II
4/25/20214. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 17Fotbalový stadion Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem16%
×Draw18%
Zbrojovka Brno II66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.12
Zbrojovka Brno II
2.43

Zbrojovka Brno II creates 117% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 39 away

creates per match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.32
Zbrojovka Brno II
2.49

allows per match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
2.37
Zbrojovka Brno II
0.92

finishing

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem+0.00on par
Zbrojovka Brno II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem ↓

Zbrojovka Brno II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem or draw
34%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem or Zbrojovka Brno II
82%
Draw or Zbrojovka Brno II
84%

Winning margin

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem wins by 2+
6%
Zbrojovka Brno II wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 1+ goals
67%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2+ goals
31%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 3+ goals
10%
Zbrojovka Brno II 1+ goals
91%
Zbrojovka Brno II 2+ goals
69%
Zbrojovka Brno II 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem (draw refunded)
20%
Zbrojovka Brno II (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.37 · 38 matches

Zbrojovka Brno II away — creates 2.49, concedes 0.92 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem attack 1.32 + Zbrojovka Brno II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.12

Zbrojovka Brno II attack 2.49 + Bystřice nad Pernštejnem defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem scores more
16%
level
18%
Zbrojovka Brno II scores more
66%

Zbrojovka Brno II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem face Zbrojovka Brno II (4. liga - Divizie D)

4. liga - Divizie D returns with Bystřice nad Pernštejnem hosting Zbrojovka Brno II. Match starts April 25, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem host Zbrojovka Brno II at Fotbalový stadion Bystřice nad Pernštejnem.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.