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Zbrojovka Brno II vs Břeclav — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Zbrojovka Brno II
Zbrojovka Brno II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Břeclav
Břeclav
3/10/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 16TCM Sladovnická

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Zbrojovka Brno II70%
×Draw18%
Břeclav12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbrojovka Brno II
2.30
Břeclav
0.85

Zbrojovka Brno II creates 171% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 66 away

creates per match

Zbrojovka Brno II
2.46
Břeclav
1.03

allows per match

Zbrojovka Brno II
0.67
Břeclav
2.14

finishing

Zbrojovka Brno II+0.00on par
Břeclav+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbrojovka Brno II ↓

Břeclav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zbrojovka Brno II or draw
88%
Zbrojovka Brno II or Břeclav
82%
Draw or Břeclav
30%

Winning margin

Zbrojovka Brno II wins by 2+
46%
Břeclav wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Zbrojovka Brno II 1+ goals
90%
Zbrojovka Brno II 2+ goals
67%
Zbrojovka Brno II 3+ goals
40%
Břeclav 1+ goals
57%
Břeclav 2+ goals
21%
Břeclav 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zbrojovka Brno II (draw refunded)
85%
Břeclav (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbrojovka Brno II at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.67 · 39 matches

Břeclav away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.14 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbrojovka Brno II attack 2.46 + Břeclav defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.30

Břeclav attack 1.03 + Zbrojovka Brno II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Zbrojovka Brno II scores more
70%
level
18%
Břeclav scores more
12%

Zbrojovka Brno II at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zbrojovka Brno II vs Břeclav

Zbrojovka Brno II beat Břeclav 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at TCM Sladovnická in Brněnské Ivanovice.