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Břeclav vs Zbrojovka Brno II — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Břeclav
Břeclav
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Zbrojovka Brno II
Zbrojovka Brno II
8/23/20234. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 1Stadion Lesní ulice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Břeclav23%
×Draw22%
Zbrojovka Brno II55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Břeclav
1.16
Zbrojovka Brno II
1.93

Zbrojovka Brno II creates 66% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 39 away

creates per match

Břeclav
1.39
Zbrojovka Brno II
2.49

allows per match

Břeclav
1.36
Zbrojovka Brno II
0.92

finishing

Břeclav+0.00on par
Zbrojovka Brno II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Břeclav ↓

Zbrojovka Brno II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Břeclav or draw
45%
Břeclav or Zbrojovka Brno II
78%
Draw or Zbrojovka Brno II
77%

Winning margin

Břeclav wins by 2+
9%
Zbrojovka Brno II wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Břeclav 1+ goals
69%
Břeclav 2+ goals
32%
Břeclav 3+ goals
11%
Zbrojovka Brno II 1+ goals
85%
Zbrojovka Brno II 2+ goals
57%
Zbrojovka Brno II 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Břeclav (draw refunded)
29%
Zbrojovka Brno II (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Břeclav at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Zbrojovka Brno II away — creates 2.49, concedes 0.92 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Břeclav attack 1.39 + Zbrojovka Brno II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.16

Zbrojovka Brno II attack 2.49 + Břeclav defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Břeclav scores more
23%
level
22%
Zbrojovka Brno II scores more
55%

Zbrojovka Brno II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Břeclav 1–4 Zbrojovka Brno II

Zbrojovka Brno II beat Břeclav 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on August 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Lesní ulice in Břeclav.