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Zawisza Bydgoszcz vs Świt Skolwin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Zawisza Bydgoszcz
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Świt Skolwin
Świt Skolwin
11/5/2022III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Stadion im. Zdzisława Krzyszkowiaka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Zawisza Bydgoszcz43%
×Draw25%
Świt Skolwin32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zawisza Bydgoszcz
1.54
Świt Skolwin
1.29

Zawisza Bydgoszcz creates 19% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 66 away

creates per match

Zawisza Bydgoszcz
1.98
Świt Skolwin
1.59

allows per match

Zawisza Bydgoszcz
0.99
Świt Skolwin
1.09

finishing

Zawisza Bydgoszcz+0.00on par
Świt Skolwin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zawisza Bydgoszcz ↓

Świt Skolwin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zawisza Bydgoszcz or draw
68%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz or Świt Skolwin
75%
Draw or Świt Skolwin
57%

Winning margin

Zawisza Bydgoszcz wins by 2+
21%
Świt Skolwin wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zawisza Bydgoszcz 1+ goals
79%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz 2+ goals
45%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz 3+ goals
20%
Świt Skolwin 1+ goals
72%
Świt Skolwin 2+ goals
37%
Świt Skolwin 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zawisza Bydgoszcz (draw refunded)
57%
Świt Skolwin (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zawisza Bydgoszcz at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.99 · 84 matches

Świt Skolwin away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zawisza Bydgoszcz attack 1.98 + Świt Skolwin defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.54

Świt Skolwin attack 1.59 + Zawisza Bydgoszcz defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zawisza Bydgoszcz scores more
43%
level
25%
Świt Skolwin scores more
32%

Zawisza Bydgoszcz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zawisza Bydgoszcz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zawisza Bydgoszcz vs Świt Skolwin

Świt Skolwin beat Zawisza Bydgoszcz 1-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im. Zdzisława Krzyszkowiaka in Bydgoszcz.