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Świt Skolwin vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Świt Skolwin
Świt Skolwin
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
6/4/2023III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Stadion Miejski Skolwin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Świt Skolwin48%
×Draw23%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Świt Skolwin
1.81
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
1.34

Świt Skolwin creates 35% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 84 away

creates per match

Świt Skolwin
2.26
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
1.95

allows per match

Świt Skolwin
0.74
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
1.37

finishing

Świt Skolwin+0.00on par
Zawisza Bydgoszcz+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Świt Skolwin ↓

Zawisza Bydgoszcz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Świt Skolwin or draw
71%
Świt Skolwin or Zawisza Bydgoszcz
77%
Draw or Zawisza Bydgoszcz
52%

Winning margin

Świt Skolwin wins by 2+
27%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Świt Skolwin 1+ goals
84%
Świt Skolwin 2+ goals
54%
Świt Skolwin 3+ goals
27%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz 1+ goals
74%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz 2+ goals
39%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Świt Skolwin (draw refunded)
63%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Świt Skolwin at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.74 · 69 matches

Zawisza Bydgoszcz away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.37 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Świt Skolwin attack 2.26 + Zawisza Bydgoszcz defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.81

Zawisza Bydgoszcz attack 1.95 + Świt Skolwin defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Świt Skolwin scores more
48%
level
23%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz scores more
29%

Świt Skolwin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Świt Skolwin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Świt Skolwin 3–3 Zawisza Bydgoszcz

Świt Skolwin and Zawisza Bydgoszcz drew 3-3 in III Liga - Group 2 on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Skolwin in Szczecin.