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Zawisza Bydgoszcz vs Noteć Czarnków — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Zawisza Bydgoszcz
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Noteć Czarnków
Noteć Czarnków
3/7/2025III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Stadion im. Zdzisława Krzyszkowiaka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Zawisza Bydgoszcz52%
×Draw22%
Noteć Czarnków26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zawisza Bydgoszcz
1.90
Noteć Czarnków
1.27

Zawisza Bydgoszcz creates 50% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 51 away

creates per match

Zawisza Bydgoszcz
1.98
Noteć Czarnków
1.55

allows per match

Zawisza Bydgoszcz
0.99
Noteć Czarnków
1.82

finishing

Zawisza Bydgoszcz+0.00on par
Noteć Czarnków+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zawisza Bydgoszcz ↓

Noteć Czarnków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Zawisza Bydgoszcz or draw
74%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz or Noteć Czarnków
78%
Draw or Noteć Czarnków
48%

Winning margin

Zawisza Bydgoszcz wins by 2+
30%
Noteć Czarnków wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zawisza Bydgoszcz 1+ goals
85%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz 2+ goals
56%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz 3+ goals
29%
Noteć Czarnków 1+ goals
72%
Noteć Czarnków 2+ goals
36%
Noteć Czarnków 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zawisza Bydgoszcz (draw refunded)
67%
Noteć Czarnków (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zawisza Bydgoszcz at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.99 · 84 matches

Noteć Czarnków away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.82 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zawisza Bydgoszcz attack 1.98 + Noteć Czarnków defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.90

Noteć Czarnków attack 1.55 + Zawisza Bydgoszcz defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zawisza Bydgoszcz scores more
52%
level
22%
Noteć Czarnków scores more
26%

Zawisza Bydgoszcz at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zawisza Bydgoszcz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Zawisza Bydgoszcz 3–0 Noteć Czarnków

Zawisza Bydgoszcz beat Noteć Czarnków 3-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on March 7, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion im. Zdzisława Krzyszkowiaka in Bydgoszcz.