Noteć Czarnków 2–4 Zawisza Bydgoszcz

Noteć Czarnków

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

8/15/2025

III Liga - Group 2 · Group II - 3Stadion Noteć Czarnków

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Noteć Czarnków38%

×Draw22%

Zawisza Bydgoszcz40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Noteć CzarnkówExpected goals in this matchZawisza Bydgoszcz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.76

Noteć Czarnków

1.71

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 84 away

2.04

creates per match

1.95

1.57

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Noteć Czarnków

2.04

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

1.95

allows per match

Noteć Czarnków

1.57

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Noteć Czarnków+0.00on par

Zawisza Bydgoszcz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noteć Czarnków ↓

Zawisza Bydgoszcz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Noteć Czarnków or draw

60%

Noteć Czarnków or Zawisza Bydgoszcz

78%

Draw or Zawisza Bydgoszcz

62%

Winning margin

Noteć Czarnków wins by 2+

19%

Zawisza Bydgoszcz wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Noteć Czarnków 1+ goals

82%

Noteć Czarnków 2+ goals

51%

Noteć Czarnków 3+ goals

24%

Zawisza Bydgoszcz 1+ goals

83%

Zawisza Bydgoszcz 2+ goals

52%

Zawisza Bydgoszcz 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Noteć Czarnków (draw refunded)

49%

Zawisza Bydgoszcz (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noteć Czarnków at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

Zawisza Bydgoszcz away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.37 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noteć Czarnków attack 2.04 + Zawisza Bydgoszcz defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.71

Zawisza Bydgoszcz attack 1.95 + Noteć Czarnków defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Noteć Czarnków scores more

38%

level

22%

Zawisza Bydgoszcz scores more

40%

Zawisza Bydgoszcz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zawisza Bydgoszcz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff