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Žarnovica vs Liptovský Hrádok — 3. liga - Center 2020

Žarnovica
Žarnovica
FT
0 – 3
Liptovský Hrádok
Liptovský Hrádok
4/24/20223. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 20Futbalový štadión MFK Nová Baňa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Žarnovica52%
×Draw21%
Liptovský Hrádok27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žarnovica
2.11
Liptovský Hrádok
1.46

Žarnovica creates 45% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Žarnovica
1.36
Liptovský Hrádok
1.00

allows per match

Žarnovica
1.91
Liptovský Hrádok
2.86

finishing

Žarnovica+0.00on par
Liptovský Hrádok+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žarnovica ↓

Liptovský Hrádok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Žarnovica or draw
73%
Žarnovica or Liptovský Hrádok
79%
Draw or Liptovský Hrádok
48%

Winning margin

Žarnovica wins by 2+
31%
Liptovský Hrádok wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Žarnovica 1+ goals
88%
Žarnovica 2+ goals
62%
Žarnovica 3+ goals
35%
Liptovský Hrádok 1+ goals
77%
Liptovský Hrádok 2+ goals
43%
Liptovský Hrádok 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Žarnovica (draw refunded)
66%
Liptovský Hrádok (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žarnovica at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.91 · 22 matches

Liptovský Hrádok away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žarnovica attack 1.36 + Liptovský Hrádok defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.11

Liptovský Hrádok attack 1.00 + Žarnovica defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Žarnovica scores more
52%
level
21%
Liptovský Hrádok scores more
27%

Žarnovica at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Žarnovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Žarnovica 0–3 Liptovský Hrádok

Liptovský Hrádok beat Žarnovica 3-0 in 3. liga - Center on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión MFK Nová Baňa in Nová Baňa.