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Liptovský Hrádok vs Žarnovica — 3. liga - Center 2020

Liptovský Hrádok
Liptovský Hrádok
FT
4 – 2
Žarnovica
Žarnovica
8/28/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 5Štadión pri Belej Liptovský Hrádok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Liptovský Hrádok64%
×Draw19%
Žarnovica18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liptovský Hrádok
2.42
Žarnovica
1.21

Liptovský Hrádok creates 100% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

Liptovský Hrádok
1.70
Žarnovica
1.04

allows per match

Liptovský Hrádok
1.39
Žarnovica
3.13

finishing

Liptovský Hrádok+0.00on par
Žarnovica+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovský Hrádok ↓

Žarnovica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Liptovský Hrádok or draw
82%
Liptovský Hrádok or Žarnovica
81%
Draw or Žarnovica
36%

Winning margin

Liptovský Hrádok wins by 2+
42%
Žarnovica wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Liptovský Hrádok 1+ goals
91%
Liptovský Hrádok 2+ goals
69%
Liptovský Hrádok 3+ goals
43%
Žarnovica 1+ goals
70%
Žarnovica 2+ goals
34%
Žarnovica 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Liptovský Hrádok (draw refunded)
78%
Žarnovica (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovský Hrádok at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Žarnovica away — creates 1.04, concedes 3.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovský Hrádok attack 1.70 + Žarnovica defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.42

Žarnovica attack 1.04 + Liptovský Hrádok defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Liptovský Hrádok scores more
64%
level
19%
Žarnovica scores more
18%

Liptovský Hrádok at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Liptovský Hrádok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Liptovský Hrádok 4–2 Žarnovica

Liptovský Hrádok beat Žarnovica 4-2 in 3. liga - Center on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión pri Belej Liptovský Hrádok in Liptovský Hrádok.