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Žarnovica vs Liptovská Štiavnica — 3. liga - Center 2020

Žarnovica
Žarnovica
CANC
14:00
Liptovská Štiavnica
Liptovská Štiavnica
4/25/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 20Futbalový štadión MFK Nová Baňa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Žarnovica56%
×Draw21%
Liptovská Štiavnica24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žarnovica
2.12
Liptovská Štiavnica
1.32

Žarnovica creates 61% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

creates per match

Žarnovica
1.36
Liptovská Štiavnica
0.74

allows per match

Žarnovica
1.91
Liptovská Štiavnica
2.87

finishing

Žarnovica+0.00on par
Liptovská Štiavnica+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žarnovica ↓

Liptovská Štiavnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Žarnovica or draw
76%
Žarnovica or Liptovská Štiavnica
79%
Draw or Liptovská Štiavnica
44%

Winning margin

Žarnovica wins by 2+
33%
Liptovská Štiavnica wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Žarnovica 1+ goals
88%
Žarnovica 2+ goals
62%
Žarnovica 3+ goals
35%
Liptovská Štiavnica 1+ goals
73%
Liptovská Štiavnica 2+ goals
38%
Liptovská Štiavnica 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Žarnovica (draw refunded)
70%
Liptovská Štiavnica (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žarnovica at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.91 · 22 matches

Liptovská Štiavnica away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žarnovica attack 1.36 + Liptovská Štiavnica defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.12

Liptovská Štiavnica attack 0.74 + Žarnovica defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Žarnovica scores more
56%
level
21%
Liptovská Štiavnica scores more
24%

Žarnovica at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Žarnovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Žarnovica host Liptovská Štiavnica

April 25, 2021: Žarnovica take on Liptovská Štiavnica in 3. liga - Center. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Žarnovica host Liptovská Štiavnica at Futbalový štadión MFK Nová Baňa.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.