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Liptovská Štiavnica vs Žarnovica — 3. liga - Center 2020

Liptovská Štiavnica
Liptovská Štiavnica
FT
3 – 1
Žarnovica
Žarnovica
8/30/20203. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 5Futbalový štadión TJ Družstevník Liptovská Štiavnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Liptovská Štiavnica60%
×Draw19%
Žarnovica22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liptovská Štiavnica
2.48
Žarnovica
1.45

Liptovská Štiavnica creates 71% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

creates per match

Liptovská Štiavnica
1.82
Žarnovica
1.04

allows per match

Liptovská Štiavnica
1.86
Žarnovica
3.13

finishing

Liptovská Štiavnica+0.00on par
Žarnovica+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovská Štiavnica ↓

Žarnovica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Liptovská Štiavnica or draw
78%
Liptovská Štiavnica or Žarnovica
81%
Draw or Žarnovica
40%

Winning margin

Liptovská Štiavnica wins by 2+
38%
Žarnovica wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Liptovská Štiavnica 1+ goals
92%
Liptovská Štiavnica 2+ goals
70%
Liptovská Štiavnica 3+ goals
44%
Žarnovica 1+ goals
77%
Žarnovica 2+ goals
42%
Žarnovica 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Liptovská Štiavnica (draw refunded)
73%
Žarnovica (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovská Štiavnica at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

Žarnovica away — creates 1.04, concedes 3.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovská Štiavnica attack 1.82 + Žarnovica defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.48

Žarnovica attack 1.04 + Liptovská Štiavnica defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Liptovská Štiavnica scores more
60%
level
19%
Žarnovica scores more
22%

Liptovská Štiavnica at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Liptovská Štiavnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Liptovská Štiavnica 3–1 Žarnovica

Liptovská Štiavnica beat Žarnovica 3-1 in 3. liga - Center on August 30, 2020.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión TJ Družstevník Liptovská Štiavnica in Liptovská Štiavnica.