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Žarnovica vs Fomat Martin — 3. liga - Center 2020

Žarnovica
Žarnovica
CANC
13:30
Fomat Martin
Fomat Martin
4/11/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 18Futbalový štadión MFK Nová Baňa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Žarnovica31%
×Draw24%
Fomat Martin45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žarnovica
1.37
Fomat Martin
1.69

Fomat Martin creates 23% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 35 away

creates per match

Žarnovica
1.36
Fomat Martin
1.46

allows per match

Žarnovica
1.91
Fomat Martin
1.37

finishing

Žarnovica+0.00on par
Fomat Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žarnovica ↓

Fomat Martin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Žarnovica or draw
55%
Žarnovica or Fomat Martin
76%
Draw or Fomat Martin
69%

Winning margin

Žarnovica wins by 2+
14%
Fomat Martin wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Žarnovica 1+ goals
75%
Žarnovica 2+ goals
40%
Žarnovica 3+ goals
16%
Fomat Martin 1+ goals
82%
Fomat Martin 2+ goals
50%
Fomat Martin 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Žarnovica (draw refunded)
41%
Fomat Martin (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žarnovica at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.91 · 22 matches

Fomat Martin away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žarnovica attack 1.36 + Fomat Martin defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

Fomat Martin attack 1.46 + Žarnovica defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Žarnovica scores more
31%
level
24%
Fomat Martin scores more
45%

Fomat Martin at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fomat Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Žarnovica vs Fomat Martin — Match Preview

Žarnovica face Fomat Martin on April 11, 2021 in this 3. liga - Center fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Žarnovica host Fomat Martin at Futbalový štadión MFK Nová Baňa.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.