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Fomat Martin vs Žarnovica — 3. liga - Center 2020

Fomat Martin
Fomat Martin
FT
5 – 0
Žarnovica
Žarnovica
8/15/20203. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 3Štadión FK Slovan Žabokreky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Fomat Martin73%
×Draw15%
Žarnovica12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fomat Martin
2.76
Žarnovica
1.05

Fomat Martin creates 163% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 23 away

creates per match

Fomat Martin
2.39
Žarnovica
1.04

allows per match

Fomat Martin
1.06
Žarnovica
3.13

finishing

Fomat Martin+0.00on par
Žarnovica+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fomat Martin ↓

Žarnovica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Fomat Martin or draw
88%
Fomat Martin or Žarnovica
85%
Draw or Žarnovica
27%

Winning margin

Fomat Martin wins by 2+
52%
Žarnovica wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Fomat Martin 1+ goals
94%
Fomat Martin 2+ goals
76%
Fomat Martin 3+ goals
51%
Žarnovica 1+ goals
65%
Žarnovica 2+ goals
28%
Žarnovica 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fomat Martin (draw refunded)
86%
Žarnovica (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fomat Martin at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches

Žarnovica away — creates 1.04, concedes 3.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fomat Martin attack 2.39 + Žarnovica defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.76

Žarnovica attack 1.04 + Fomat Martin defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Fomat Martin scores more
73%
level
15%
Žarnovica scores more
12%

Fomat Martin at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Fomat Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Fomat Martin 5–0 Žarnovica

Fomat Martin beat Žarnovica 5-0 in 3. liga - Center on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Štadión FK Slovan Žabokreky in Žabokreky.