Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Žarnovica vs Čadca — 3. liga - Center 2020

Žarnovica
Žarnovica
FT
1 – 1
Čadca
Čadca
10/10/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 11Futbalový štadión MFK Nová Baňa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Žarnovica58%
×Draw21%
Čadca21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žarnovica
2.14
Čadca
1.21

Žarnovica creates 77% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

creates per match

Žarnovica
1.36
Čadca
0.52

allows per match

Žarnovica
1.91
Čadca
2.91

finishing

Žarnovica+0.00on par
Čadca+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žarnovica ↓

Čadca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Žarnovica or draw
79%
Žarnovica or Čadca
79%
Draw or Čadca
42%

Winning margin

Žarnovica wins by 2+
36%
Čadca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Žarnovica 1+ goals
88%
Žarnovica 2+ goals
63%
Žarnovica 3+ goals
36%
Čadca 1+ goals
70%
Čadca 2+ goals
34%
Čadca 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Žarnovica (draw refunded)
74%
Čadca (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žarnovica at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.91 · 22 matches

Čadca away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.91 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žarnovica attack 1.36 + Čadca defence 2.91 → ÷2 → 2.14

Čadca attack 0.52 + Žarnovica defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Žarnovica scores more
58%
level
21%
Čadca scores more
21%

Žarnovica at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Žarnovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Žarnovica 1–1 Čadca

Žarnovica and Čadca drew 1-1 in 3. liga - Center on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión MFK Nová Baňa in Nová Baňa.